3 Braves under the most pressure after Austin Riley injury to hold onto WC spot (2024)

The Atlanta Braves officially earn the title of 'Unluckiest MLB Team' for the 2024 season.

Brian Snitker's team received a double shot of injury news on Monday. Some good, some bad. Reynaldo Lopez is due back from the IL for Tuesday's series opener against the first-place Phillies, which is splendid. Less splendid, however, is the latest upside on third baseman Austin Riley, who was removed from Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Angels after a pitch rammed his right hand.

Riley is slated to miss 6-8 weeks with a right hand fracture, per the Braves' official press release. That puts Riley's estimated return date somewhere in early-to-mid October, which means the two-time All-Star is probably done for the remainder of the regular season.

This is only the latest in a string of heartbreaking injuries for the Braves. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. were lost mere days into the season, while Ozzie Albies' status for the rest of 2024 is also in doubt. Factor in recent injury spells for Jorge Soler and Travis d'Arnaud, and it's hard to feel good about Atlanta heading into the stretch run.

At 66-58, the Braves currently hold a 2.0-game lead over the New York Mets for the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League. The San Francisco Giants (4.0 GB), St. Louis Cardinals (5.0 GB), and Chicago Cubs (5.5 GB) are also lurking.

It's a tight race and momentum isn't exactly on the Braves' side. It helps that New York, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Chicago are all struggling to various extents, but all it takes is one timely push to leave the Braves on the wrong side of the postseason divide.

Here are the Braves under the most pressure now with Riley out of commission.

Luke Williams will be the immediate replacement at third base, although Atlanta could look to get Nacho Alvarez back up to the MLB level before long. A sooner-than-expected Albies return would help assuage concerns about Atlanta's infield depth chart, but Riley's absence creates a void that cannot be filled. The Braves can only hope to paper over it the best they can.

This has not been Riley's best season individually, but he has been Atlanta's most reliable non-Marcell Ozuna bat for a good chunk of the campaign. His highs remain exceedingly high, and the Braves will miss his power (.461 slugging, 19 home runs) in the middle of the lineup. It falls on Williams, somewhat unfairly, to step into those daunting shoes.

At 28, Williams hasn't established much of a foothold in the majors. He's 2-for-17 at the plate with the Braves this season. For his career, Williams is slashing .218/.277/.284 with two home runs through 261 ABs. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence. He went 1-for-3 Sunday afternoon in Riley's stead, but it will take a lot for Williams to earn the respect and confidence of Braves fans.

It's worth noting that Williams has been far more prolific at the Triple-A level, batting .284 with an .856 OPS and eight home runs across 181 ABs with Gwinnett. That doesn't hold too much weight if he can't deliver at the next level, but there's a reason Atlanta called Williams up in the first place. This is a chance to change the trajectory of his career.

2. Michael Harris II

It has been a challenging campaign for Michael Harris II, who only recently returned from an injury of his own. In the macro sense, Braves fans can (and should) operate patiently with the 23-year-old. He's an incredibly promising talent and he has embraced Atlanta as much as anybody on the team. There are strong Brave For Life vibes when watching Harris.

In the micro sense, focusing on the here and now, the Braves need more from the speedy centerfielder. Harris has not made the third-year leap most expected, in part due to so much missed time and general rust. He's batting .252, which comes in well below his sophom*ore mark (.293). The slugging is way down, he's not tearing up the base paths at the same rate, and something just feels off.

We can probably chalk this season up as an aberration for Harris, but the plate discipline, (or lack thereof) has been worrisome. He's in the third percentile for chase rate (41.3) and the 17th percentile for walks (5.6), per Baseball Savant. Harris is lunging for pitches out of the zone and he's not working counts. This has long been a weak point for Harris — he loves to attack pitches early — but when he's not on the verge of joining the 20-20 club or finding other ways on base, it stands out in a far more negative light.

There is still time for Harris to relocate his swing and start doing more damage in the heart of Atlanta's lineup. The Braves sure need it. Without Riley, that is one less underperforming star to deflect blame away from Harris. He can hardly carry the full burden of what is shaping up to be a failed season, but Harris is going to earn some criticism if he can't step up down the stretch.

Matt Olson has been one of the few core Braves to avoid a serious injury bout this season. Unfortunately, his production has plummeted well below his normal standards despite his good health. Olson led the National League in slugging (.604) last season, Now, he's on track for the worst slugging of his career (.423), not to mention a noticeable spike in strikeouts and a decline in walks.

Olson has gone from a bonafide MVP candidate to missing out on the All-Star game, putting up numbers that are meaningfully worse than Pete Alonso's in New York. That is a comparison Atlanta fans would have scoffed at a year ago. Now, the Mets have the upper hand in that debate.

It's not particularly clear why the hard-hitting lefty has regressed so substantially this season. It feels like a generally bad vibe has infested the entire Braves roster. Aside from Marcell Ozuna, just about the entire lineup is out of whack. Olson still has 21 home runs and 63 RBI to date, so it has not been a lost season. Especially factoring in his remarkable durability, something the Braves have needed more than ever. When we look at Braves who need to step up in Riley's absence, however, the clear pick is Olson. He should be the second pontoon keeping the Braves' offense afloat next to Ozuna.

In reality, the entire Braves' offense faces greater pressure without Riley in the lineup. The effort to replace him needs to be collective, not individual. To quote the great Billy Beane in Moneyball, they need to replace him in the aggregate. Olson should be a large chunk of that aggregate, though. It's past time for Olson to find his rhythm and start raking again.